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The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. To wit, the New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU) share price has flown 179% in the last three years. That sort of return is as solid as granite. And in the last month, the share price has gained 18%. This could be related to the recent financial results that were recently released - you could check the most recent data by reading our company report.
Since the long term performance has been good but there's been a recent pullback of 6.8%, let's check if the fundamentals match the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for New Oriental Education & Technology Group
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the three years of share price growth, New Oriental Education & Technology Group actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) drop 2.3% per year.
Based on these numbers, we think that the decline in earnings per share may not be a good representation of how the business has changed over the years. So other metrics may hold the key to understanding what is influencing investors.
The modest 0.8% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. The revenue drop of 4.4% is as underwhelming as some politicians. What's clear is that historic earnings and revenue aren't matching up with the share price action, very well. So you might have to dig deeper to get a grasp of the situation
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
New Oriental Education & Technology Group is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. You can see what analysts are predicting for New Oriental Education & Technology Group in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, New Oriental Education & Technology Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 181%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!