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It hasn't been the best quarter for Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. (NASDAQ:TCBI) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 17% in that time. But that scarcely detracts from the really solid long term returns generated by the company over five years. In fact, the share price is 182% higher today. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. Only time will tell if there is still too much optimism currently reflected in the share price.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Texas Capital Bancshares. Read for free now.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During five years of share price growth, Texas Capital Bancshares actually saw its EPS drop 26% per year.
This means it's unlikely the market is judging the company based on earnings growth. Because earnings per share don't seem to match up with the share price, we'll take a look at other metrics instead.
On the other hand, Texas Capital Bancshares' revenue is growing nicely, at a compound rate of 3.2% over the last five years. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
Texas Capital Bancshares is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Texas Capital Bancshares will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Texas Capital Bancshares has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 12% in the last twelve months. However, that falls short of the 23% TSR per annum it has made for shareholders, each year, over five years. The pessimistic view would be that be that the stock has its best days behind it, but on the other hand the price might simply be moderating while the business itself continues to execute. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Texas Capital Bancshares better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Texas Capital Bancshares is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...