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One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. Just take a look at Insurance Australia Group Limited (ASX:IAG), which is up 55%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 5.2% (not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 40%, including dividends.
Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
See our latest analysis for Insurance Australia Group
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Insurance Australia Group became profitable within the last three years. So we would expect a higher share price over the period.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It is of course excellent to see how Insurance Australia Group has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Insurance Australia Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Insurance Australia Group the TSR over the last 3 years was 70%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that Insurance Australia Group has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 40% in the last twelve months. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 2% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Insurance Australia Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...