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It hasn't been the best quarter for Gold Road Resources Limited (ASX:GOR) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 21% in that time. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been respectable. After all, the stock has performed better than the market (54%) in that time, and is up 56%.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
See our latest analysis for Gold Road Resources
To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the five years of share price growth, Gold Road Resources moved from a loss to profitability. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so we would expect to see an increasing share price. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Gold Road Resources share price is up 17% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 5.2% per year. This EPS growth is remarkably close to the 5% average annual increase in the share price (over three years, again). So you could reasonably conclude that investor sentiment towards the stock has remained pretty steady, over time. There's a strong correlation between the share price and EPS.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Gold Road Resources has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Gold Road Resources, it has a TSR of 62% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!