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The last three months have been tough on DroneShield Limited (ASX:DRO) shareholders, who have seen the share price decline a rather worrying 52%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been very strong. In three years the stock price has launched 247% higher: a great result. After a run like that some may not be surprised to see prices moderate. The fundamental business performance will ultimately dictate whether the top is in, or if this is a stellar buying opportunity.
So let's investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.
See our latest analysis for DroneShield
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During three years of share price growth, DroneShield moved from a loss to profitability. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It is of course excellent to see how DroneShield has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that DroneShield shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 64% over one year. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 18% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand DroneShield better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with DroneShield (including 1 which is potentially serious) .
Of course DroneShield may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Australian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.