In This Article:
It hasn't been the best quarter for Cokal Limited (ASX:CKA) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 17% in that time. While that's not great, the returns over five years have been decent. After all, the stock has performed better than the market (53%) in that time, and is up 53%. While the long term returns are impressive, we do have some sympathy for those who bought more recently, given the 40% drop, in the last year.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Cokal
With just US$2,536,874 worth of revenue in twelve months, we don't think the market considers Cokal to have proven its business plan. So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). For example, investors may be hoping that Cokal finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.
As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is usually a significant chance that they will need more money for business development, putting them at the mercy of capital markets to raise equity. So the share price itself impacts the value of the shares (as it determines the cost of capital). While some companies like this go on to deliver on their plan, making good money for shareholders, many end in painful losses and eventual de-listing. Cokal has already given some investors a taste of the sweet gains that high risk investing can generate, if your timing is right.
Cokal had liabilities exceeding cash by US$44m when it last reported in December 2023, according to our data. That puts it in the highest risk category, according to our analysis. So the fact that the stock is up 123% per year, over 5 years shows that high risks can lead to high rewards, sometimes. It's clear more than a few people believe in the potential. You can see in the image below, how Cokal's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).
It can be extremely risky to invest in a company that doesn't even have revenue. There's no way to know its value easily. Given that situation, many of the best investors like to check if insiders have been buying shares. It's often positive if so, assuming the buying is sustained and meaningful. Luckily we are in a position to provide you with this free chart of insider buying (and selling).
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 16% in the last year, Cokal shareholders lost 40%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 9%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Cokal is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those make us uncomfortable...