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When you buy shares in a company, it's worth keeping in mind the possibility that it could fail, and you could lose your money. But on a lighter note, a good company can see its share price rise well over 100%. For example, the Cardinal Health, Inc. (NYSE:CAH) share price has soared 157% in the last half decade. Most would be very happy with that. In the last week the share price is up 1.7%.
So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 5 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
During the five years of share price growth, Cardinal Health moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. Indeed, the Cardinal Health share price has gained 109% in three years. In the same period, EPS is up 41% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 28% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Cardinal Health has improved its bottom line over the last three years, but what does the future have in store? This free interactive report on Cardinal Health's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Cardinal Health the TSR over the last 5 years was 196%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!