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It hasn't been the best quarter for BCI Minerals Limited (ASX:BCI) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 23% in that time. In contrast, the return over three years has been impressive. The share price marched upwards over that time, and is now 125% higher than it was. To some, the recent share price pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a good run. The fundamental business performance will ultimately dictate whether the top is in, or if this is a stellar buying opportunity.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for BCI Minerals
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
BCI Minerals was able to grow its EPS at 4.2% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. This EPS growth is lower than the 31% average annual increase in the share price. So it's fair to assume the market has a higher opinion of the business than it did three years ago. That's not necessarily surprising considering the three-year track record of earnings growth.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We know that BCI Minerals has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between BCI Minerals' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. The TSR attempts to capture the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested) as well as any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings offered to shareholders. Dividends have been really beneficial for BCI Minerals shareholders, and that cash payout contributed to why its TSR of 130%, over the last 3 years, is better than the share price return.
A Different Perspective
It's good to see that BCI Minerals has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 18% in the last twelve months. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 12% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - BCI Minerals has 3 warning signs (and 2 which make us uncomfortable) we think you should know about.