President Biden has an inflation problem. The annual pace of price hikes hit 4.2% in April, the biggest jump in 12 years. Stocks sold off and consumer confidence fell, as the robust economic recovery suddenly turned pallid.
As inflation goes, however, there’s a very strange divergence between things getting more expensive and things that are not. White House officials and many economists say the price hikes are “transitory,” and will abate by later this year. A look at the things getting more expensive suggests they’re right, with price hikes likely to cause minimal pain for most consumers.
The most startling price hike in April was for used cars, with prices up 21% during the last 12 months. There’s nothing new about used cars that suddenly makes them much more valuable. Prices are going up because a global semiconductor shortage has cut into new-car production and reduced supply. People who would otherwise buy a new car are buying used instead, with the sharp increase in demand for used cars pushing up prices.
New-car prices must be soaring, too, right? Actually, no. The cost of new vehicles rose just 2% in April, compared with a year earlier. This suggests consumers may not be spending more on cars, after all. People interested in buying a new car seem to be purchasing used ones instead, because they can’t find a new model they want. Despite a shortage of new cars, buyers are not bidding up prices. They may actually be saving money by buying used instead of new, because used vehicles are about $16,000 cheaper than new ones, on average.
Gasoline prices in April were 50% higher than a year earlier, which sounds like an inflation nightmare for any president, since nothing roils Americans more than pricey gas. But this is because of “base effects”: the price a year ago was so low that it exaggerates the year-over-year change. From February to May of last year, the widespread shutdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic pushed the average price of gas from $2.50 a gallon to $1.88. It’s now up to around $3 per gallon, which is a big jump from last year but only about 10 cents higher than the average price of the last 10 years. Drivers can handle it.
Other notable jumps in April prices were related to travel. Airfares were 9.6% higher than a year ago, hotel prices rose 7.3% and rental car prices soared by 82%. Good! The coronavirus recession crushed the travel industry, and it’s getting back on its feet. Airfares and hotel rates are still well below pre-pandemic levels, so they’re not really expensive. Rental car rates are above pre-crisis levels, and rentals are expensive. That should ease, though, as rental agencies rebuild fleets they thinned out last year.