This week in Bidenomics: The new king of debt

Former President Donald Trump once declared himself “the king of debt.” President Joe Biden will resoundingly dethrone him.

The Congressional Budget Office published its semiannual economic forecast on Feb. 11, and the numbers are astonishing. CBO estimates the federal budget deficit this year will hit $2.3 trillion, which believe it or not wouldn’t be the biggest ever. The deficit last year was $3.1 trillion, the largest in U.S. history.

But the 2021 estimate doesn’t include the $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” Biden and his fellow Democrats in Congress are drafting. Add in that measure, and the 2021 deficit could hit $3.7 trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Deficits will stay near or above $1 trillion for the foreseeable future, with the national debt likely to rise by at least $7 trillion through the end of Biden’s term. The debt rose by about $5.6 trillion during Trump’s four years, with more than half of that coming in 2020.

The salient question: Does it matter? Economists have changed their views on this during the last decade, because the predicted ravages of massive debt have never materialized. In theory, too much government borrowing can crowd out private borrowing, pushing interest rates up, slowing growth and causing inflation. Rising rates make it more expensive to borrow money, worsening the problem. A government caught in this trap can either print more money—exacerbating inflation—or impose painful spending cuts and tax hikes that pummel living standards.

None of that has happened since the Great Recession ended in 2009, despite many rumored sightings of the “bond vigilantes.” Economists now think it’s more important to flood the system with money during a downturn such as we’re in, and deal with the debt later. One lesson from the Great Recession was that there wasn’t enough government stimulus, which is why the recovery was painfully slow.

If the Biden bill passes, fiscal stimulus this year and last will be roughly 7 times what the government pumped into the economy during the Great Recession. A faster recovery ought to put people back to work faster and boost output, increasing tax payments on the other side and bringing in more federal revenue eventually than would come in without massive stimulus.

The total national debt is now about $28 trillion, which is about 30% more than annual GDP. No sweat, say many economists. Harvard’s Jason Furman, who was President Obama’s top White House economist, argues that real interest payments on the debt as a percentage of GDP are well below the historical average, because of super-low interest rates. That would be the case with the Biden relief plan as well.