This week in Bidenomics: Sure, go big, voters say

By some measures, President Biden’s “Build Back Better” plan is larger than the New Deal Franklin Roosevelt enacted during the Great Depression. Voter reaction: Bring it.

Biden’s overall plan is actually three separate packages, each in the neighborhood of $2 trillion in spending or more. Congress already passed the “American Rescue Plan” ($1.9 trillion) in March. Shortly after that Biden unveiled his “American Jobs Plan” ($2.7 trillion) and this week he released his “American Family Plan” ($1.8 trillion). Biden would finance much of this new spending by raising taxes on businesses and the wealthy, so in theory it wouldn’t add that much to the national debt.

Add it all up, and Biden wants to spend 27.5% of GDP on his economic plan, according to new research by policy analyst Bruce Mehlman. That’s the biggest spending package, outside of war, in U.S. history. The New Deal was only 12.6% of GDP, and the Marshall Plan that helped rebuild Europe after World War II was only 5.2%.

That’s an imperfect way of measuring a policy proposal, because GDP is an annual measure of economic activity while Biden’s program (like the New Deal) would roll out over several years. But it’s a basis for comparison. Even if Congress cuts the AJP and AFP in half, the package would still amount to some 18% of GDP, 50% larger than the New Deal.

Do we really need such massive spending? By conventional measures, no. The economy grew at a 6.4% pace in the first quarter, and total GDP will soon reach pre-pandemic levels. We’re still 8.4 million jobs below the pre-pandemic levels of February 2020, but hiring should be strong through the end of the year. Some employers can’t find enough workers and instead of weak demand, the economy now suffers from supply shortages that are pushing up prices.

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 28:   President Joe Biden speaks with lawmakers as he exits the House chamber at the end of his address to the joint session of Congress in the House chamber of the U.S. Capitol April 28, 2021 in Washington, DC. On the eve of his 100th day in office, Biden will speak about his plan to revive America's economy and health as it continues to recover from a devastating pandemic. He will deliver his speech before 200 invited lawmakers and other government officials instead of the normal 1600 guests because of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Caroline Brehman - Pool/Getty Images)
President Joe Biden speaks with lawmakers as he exits the House chamber at the end of his address to the joint session of Congress in the House chamber of the U.S. Capitol April 28, 2021 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Caroline Brehman - Pool/Getty Images) · Pool via Getty Images

Biden, however, thinks he has a chance to revamp the economy in ways that will ameliorate gaping wealth inequality while better situating the United States for future competition with China. His jobs plan would entail massive spending to convert the economy from carbon to green energy and root the technologies of the future on U.S. soil. His families plan would provide unprecedented financial help to working parents and substantially strengthen the social safety net. What’s so bad about that?

Nothing at all, voters seem to be saying as they take it all in. An April 26 Monmouth University poll found that 68% of voters support Biden’s infrastructure spending plan, with just 29% opposed. The same poll found 64% support for more health care and child care spending, as in Biden’s families plan. In a Reuters-Ipsos poll, 73% said they approve of the economic priorities Biden laid out in his first address to Congress on April 28.