Voters rendered definitive judgment on the Biden economy: It stinks.
Donald Trump’s decisive win over Kamala Harris in the presidential election confirms Americans’ disgust with a menu of things: Wokeism, big government, runaway migration, a chaotic world.
And inflation. Before the tally of the 2024 presidential election was final, it was clear the outcome might depend on whether voters felt comfortable that inflation was back under control or resentful at the bite it has taken out of their wallets during the last three years. Now we know. Inflation cooked the Democrats.
In exit polls, 22% of voters said inflation had caused them severe hardship and 53% cited moderate hardship. So 75% of voters felt harmed by inflation to some degree. That heavily influenced their vote. In a survey conducted after the election, Democratic research firm Blueprint found that the top reason voters did not choose Harris was inflation.
Harris and Biden had similar takes on the economy as they tried to persuade Americans to vote Democrat. They both touted record job growth and solid GDP gains under Biden while acknowledging there was more work to do. The unfinished job was getting the cost of rent, groceries, and other staples down.
There was measurable progress. The rate of inflation peaked at 9% in 2022 and has since fallen all the way back to 2.4%, which is close to normal. Food prices are now rising by a mere 1.3% year over year. Gas is a manageable $3.10 per gallon. Wages have been growing faster than prices for a year.
Turns out, it doesn’t matter. The inflation hit more than offset all the positives of the Biden economy, at least politically. To ordinary Americans, job growth and GDP are statistical cloud puffs. What’s tangible to them is the price of everyday necessities. Screw that up, and you’re out.
Biden (and Harris) still have 10 weeks left in office. But the economy is Trump’s now, and most voters are probably happy to kiss the Biden economy goodbye.
Stock markets jumped on the prospect of a second Trump term as investors await tax cuts, more deficit spending to juice the economy, and deregulation that could boost corporate profits. The bond market is more jittery, with yields up on concern that Trump’s tariff and deportation plans could be inflationary.
Trump will get a grace period on the economy, as most presidents do. Then he’ll have to prove that he will, in fact, do a better job on the economy than Biden and Harris. It’s a 50-50 proposition.
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