President Biden is just going to have to take his lumps for a while.

Many aspects of the economy are doing great. There are tons of jobs available, and the unemployment rate has plunged since Biden took office in January. GDP growth could hit 7% in the fourth quarter and 5% or more for the whole year.

But: inflation. This is the biggest economic story for the time being, and that will probably be the case for at least a few more months. President Biden told Americans in July that inflation was likely to be “temporary.” At the time, the annual inflation rate was 5.3%. It’s now 6.8%, the highest level in 39 years. Since Biden predicted inflation would pass, it has only gotten worse.

This is also the kind of inflation ordinary consumers feel every day. Food costs are up 6.4%, and clothing 5%. Transportation costs have risen 22%, driven by gas prices, which are up 58% during the last year. Rents have been stable, but are still creeping up by 3%. Wages, meanwhile, are rising by 4.8%, which would be pretty good most of the time—but now, it’s 2 percentage points lower than inflation. That means typical workers are falling behind.

These grim numbers are more than enough ammunition for Biden critics eager to paint his policies as harmful to ordinary Americans. “Inflation is out of control on the Democrats’ watch,” Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said in a Dec. 10 statement. “It is exactly what experts warned Democrats’ reckless spending would cause.”

That’s hyperbole. The only Democratic spending package that has even gone into effect is the $2 trillion Covid relief bill from March. That may have had a modest impact on inflation, by giving some consumers more money to spend and boosting demand. But that wouldn’t explain a 4-point increase in prices since then. The real reasons are mostly beyond Biden’s control, and familiar by now: Spending patterns shifted during the Covid pandemic, with consumers wanting more goods and fewer services. That happened at the same time supply-chain disruptions were making it harder to get goods to market. Those factors still persist.

[Click here to get Rick Newman’s stories by email.]

Inflation might not be Biden’s fault—but it’s certainly his problem. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has cited inflation concerns as a reason to trim and possibly delay the Build Back Better legislation Democrats hope to pass by the end of the year. This is Biden’s marquee policy package, with historic investments in social programs and green energy. It’s already a tough sell, with Manchin and a couple other moderate Democrats in the Senate effectively holding veto power over the bill. Manchin’s inflation worries could delay passage until next year or kill the bill completely.