President Joe Biden says he’s leaving incoming President Donald Trump a booming economy.

Eh, maybe.

Biden gave a speech on Dec. 10 lauding his own economic accomplishments. The usual talking points were there: more than 16 million new jobs since Biden took office, historically low unemployment, and retirement plans that are growing because of a sustained stock-market rally.

Then he quoted a press report claiming that “President-elect Trump is receiving the strongest economy in modern history.”

On paper, sure. Job growth has been at record highs under Biden, partly because he took office just as a dramatic post-COVID recovery was getting underway in 2021. Roughly $6 trillion in COVID-era stimulus spending has helped keep consumers buoyant, even amid two years of painful inflation. The Yahoo Finance Bidenomics Report Card gives Biden an A- on the economy, based on statistical comparisons with seven prior first-term presidents going back to Jimmy Carter in the 1970s.

Nothing is likely to change the economy’s trajectory by the time Trump takes office next month. But Trump’s timing might not be as fortuitous as it seems. Three things could undermine the economy during Trump’s first year or two in office and change the perception of voters who think Trump is better for their personal fortunes than any Democrat.

First, inflation is tamed but not licked. The annual inflation rate has dropped from a peak of 9% in 2022 to just 2.7%. But it has actually ticked upward during the last two months. Inflation bottomed at 2.4% in September and has now drifted upward by three-tenths of a point. That could be a temporary relapse that doesn’t last. But it also indicates that some price hikes are a lot more stubborn than others.

The price hikes that bothered consumers the most in 2022 and 2023 are no longer really a problem. Grocery prices are rising by just 1.6%. Gasoline is down 8% year over year to a manageable national average of around $3 per gallon. Of 27 product categories Yahoo Finance has been tracking since 2021, eight are now getting cheaper.

What’s getting more expensive are mostly services, which aren’t priced as transparently as gas or milk or a pair of shoes. Goods prices are actually declining slightly on a year-over-year basis. The cost of services, however, is up 4.5%. That includes rent (up 4.4%), auto insurance (12.7%), health insurance (5.9%), day care and preschool (6.2%), personal care (4.8%), and dry cleaning (5.4%).

Drop Rick Newman a note, follow him on Twitter, or sign up for his newsletter.

Services prices may be more likely to stay up, or even go higher, than products on a shelf because it’s harder to shop around. You can’t switch apartments every couple of months the way you can buy soup wherever there happens to be a sale. And services account for about two-thirds of all consumer spending, so this is inflation that counts. If services inflation stays sticky, the Federal Reserve may not be cutting interest rates much further, which would keep borrowing costs for businesses and consumers higher than everybody would like.