Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that The New Zealand Refining Company Limited (NZSE:NZR) does have debt on its balance sheet. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for New Zealand Refining
What Is New Zealand Refining's Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that New Zealand Refining had NZ$265.8m in debt in June 2019; about the same as the year before. Net debt is about the same, since the it doesn't have much cash.
How Healthy Is New Zealand Refining's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that New Zealand Refining had liabilities of NZ$225.5m falling due within a year, and liabilities of NZ$407.9m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had NZ$4.45m in cash and NZ$39.9m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total NZ$589.1m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of NZ$649.4m. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
New Zealand Refining has net debt worth 1.7 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 4.0 times the interest expense. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. The bad news is that New Zealand Refining saw its EBIT decline by 19% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine New Zealand Refining's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.