The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Wing Tai Properties Limited (HKG:369) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Wing Tai Properties had HK$4.76b of debt in June 2019, down from HK$5.32b, one year before. However, it does have HK$2.39b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about HK$2.37b.
A Look At Wing Tai Properties's Liabilities
According to the last reported balance sheet, Wing Tai Properties had liabilities of HK$3.08b due within 12 months, and liabilities of HK$4.26b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had HK$2.39b in cash and HK$529.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by HK$4.42b.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of HK$6.56b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Wing Tai Properties's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Wing Tai Properties's net debt is 4.7 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. But its EBIT was about 1k times its interest expense, implying the company isn't really paying full freight on that debt. Even if not sustainable, that is a good sign. Unfortunately, Wing Tai Properties saw its EBIT slide 7.0% in the last twelve months. If that earnings trend continues then its debt load will grow heavy like the heart of a polar bear watching its sole cub. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Wing Tai Properties's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Wing Tai Properties reported free cash flow worth 8.2% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
To be frank both Wing Tai Properties's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and its track record of managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But at least it's pretty decent at covering its interest expense with its EBIT; that's encouraging. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Wing Tai Properties stock a bit risky. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but we'd generally feel more comfortable with less leverage. In light of our reservations about the company's balance sheet, it seems sensible to check if insiders have been selling shares recently.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt100% free, right now.
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If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.