We Think Ceconomy's (ETR:CEC) Profit Is Only A Baseline For What They Can Achieve

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When companies post strong earnings, the stock generally performs well, just like Ceconomy AG's (ETR:CEC) stock has recently. Our analysis found some more factors that we think are good for shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Ceconomy

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XTRA:CEC Earnings and Revenue History August 21st 2024

Zooming In On Ceconomy's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. That's because some academic studies have suggested that high accruals ratios tend to lead to lower profit or less profit growth.

For the year to June 2024, Ceconomy had an accrual ratio of -0.22. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of €679m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of €135.0m. Ceconomy did see its free cash flow drop year on year, which is less than ideal, like a Simpson's episode without Groundskeeper Willie. However, we can see that a recent tax benefit, along with unusual items, have impacted its statutory profit, and therefore its accrual ratio.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

Ceconomy's profit was reduced by unusual items worth €74m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. If Ceconomy doesn't see those unusual expenses repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to increase over the coming year.