Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Arvind SmartSpaces Limited (NSE:ARVSMART) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
As you can see below, Arvind SmartSpaces had ₹1.71b of debt, at March 2019, which is about the same the year before. You can click the chart for greater detail. However, it does have ₹119.0m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about ₹1.59b.
A Look At Arvind SmartSpaces's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Arvind SmartSpaces had liabilities of ₹4.30b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹822.7m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of ₹119.0m and ₹356.3m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total ₹4.65b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's ₹3.19b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet, just like one might study a new partner's social media. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Arvind SmartSpaces has net debt worth 2.2 times EBITDA, which isn't too much, but its interest cover looks a bit on the low side, with EBIT at only 3.5 times the interest expense. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. It is well worth noting that Arvind SmartSpaces's EBIT shot up like bamboo after rain, gaining 32% in the last twelve months. That'll make it easier to manage its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Arvind SmartSpaces will need earnings to service that debt. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Arvind SmartSpaces burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
On the face of it, Arvind SmartSpaces's level of total liabilities left us tentative about the stock, and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. But at least it's pretty decent at growing its EBIT; that's encouraging. We're quite clear that we consider Arvind SmartSpaces to be really rather risky, as a result of its balance sheet health. So we're almost as wary of this stock as a hungry kitten is about falling into its owner's fish pond: once bitten, twice shy, as they say. Above most other metrics, we think its important to track how fast earnings per share is growing, if at all. If you've also come to that realization, you're in luck, because today you can view this interactive graph of Arvind SmartSpaces's earnings per share history for free.
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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