Count your blessings: Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper again this season.
That marks the second year in a row the price of the meal retreated from its 2022 high. The average cost is $58.08 for 10 people, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation's (AFBF) study, which dates back 39 years. The total price is down 5% from last year and is 4.5% lower than in 2022, when the supper commemorating the 1621 harvest feast with the Pilgrims and the Wampanoag people soared to a peak of $64.02.
The survey's cornucopia of goods includes turkey, stuffing, sweet potatoes, rolls, peas, cranberries, a veggie tray, and pumpkin pie with whipped cream. AFBF's expanded menu — which also consists of boneless ham, russet potatoes, and frozen green beans — increases the overall cost by $19.26.
Despite the budget-friendly price tag, the dinner is still 19% higher than in 2019, illustrating how actual prices are still ruffling Americans' feathers.
"We've had two back-to-back declines, but this isn't quite enough to erase the dramatic increases that we saw," Bernt Nelson, an AFBF economist, told Yahoo Finance. "And I think that speaks to inflation as a whole. We're seeing inflation come down, but what's key to remember is we're measuring the rate of growth slowing."
"That doesn't mean we're going down in prices."
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Gobble gobble
The biggest factor carving down Thanksgiving meal costs is the turkey, the traditional centerpiece that makes up 44.2% of the 10-person dinner. This year, the price of a 16-pound bird didn’t just increase at a slower rate — it actually dropped 6% to $25.67, or $1.60 per pound, from $27.35, or $1.71 per pound, in 2023.
The reason for the decline is complicated.
At first glance, you'd think prices would have taken flight this year because a widespread, years-long bird flu decimated the supply of the holiday fowl. The number of birds raised this year was at the lowest level since 1985. (The flu has also been responsible for the run-up in egg prices.)
But our appetite for the wattled bird has flagged even more this year. Per capita demand for turkey fell one pound to 13.9 pounds per person this year, the AFBF report said, citing US Department of Agriculture data.
But the USDA report "doesn't have a specific breakdown for lunch meat versus a frozen bird, so it's a little tricky to see exactly where the demand is dropping off," Nelson said.
Turkeys are shown in a pen at Root Down Farm in Pescadero, Calif., Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2020. (AP Photo/Haven Daley) ·ASSOCIATED PRESS
Prices of other Thanksgiving ingredients were trimmed even more percentage-wise. Three pounds of sweet potatoes, part of the bigger menu, cost 26.2% less this year, while whole milk fell 14.3% year over year — thanks to favorable weather for cows and their feedstuff. Other price declines to be grateful for include:
1 pound of frozen peas, down 8.1%
1-pound veggie tray, down 6.4%
30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix, down 6.5
And two frozen pie crusts, down 2.9%
Other ingredients are going for a bounty compared with last year. A dozen dinner rolls cost 8.4% more versus 2023, while you'll shell out 8.2% more for 14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix. Those increases all come down to wages, Nelson said, which are up around 3.8% to 4% across the country.
"These [items] require a little bit more hands-on labor," he said, "and that increases the labor cost and that trickles down to the cost of the final products."
Freshly harvested cranberries are held in the hands on Oct. 26, 2022, in Lower Saxony (Philipp Schulze/picture alliance via Getty Images) ·picture alliance via Getty Images
The biggest price increase came from fresh cranberries, which jumped 12%. But that's only after prices plummeted 18% last year because of a very good production season. Prices now for the berry are still more affordable than historical norms, the AFBF said, and when adjusted for inflation, this year's price is the lowest since 1987.
In fact, adjusting for inflation, this year's Thanksgiving feast is the least expensive since 1985 when the survey began, aside from the outlier in 2020 during the height of the pandemic, according to the AFBF.
Overall, the growth in grocery prices has slowed considerably and was only up 1.1% in October. And considering the growth in wages following the pandemic, including this year's 4% gain, it took 9% less work time to pay for this year’s Thanksgiving dinner.
"When we see these periods of high growth, we see the cost of these things go up and that comes from wage growth," Nelson said. "It comes from a strong economy overall."
Inflation still takes a toll
Still, Americans continue to feel lousy about inflation, even as the overall rate of price increases approaches the Federal Reserve's ideal target. And those lingering feelings are souring their holiday gathering just a little.
A recent survey of 2,050 US adults from LendingTree found that 60% of folks hosting Thanksgiving say that inflation is going to have an impact. They plan to spend $431 on average for food, drinks, and decor — up 19% from last year — which is a financial strain for more than a third of them.
"That's a lot of money when you're talking about how expensive life already is," said Matt Schulz, LendingTree chief credit analyst and author of “Ask Questions, Save Money, Make More: How to Take Control of Your Financial Life.”
To compensate, over a quarter of hosts plan to change their food choices or coupon more, while others expect a helping hand from their guests. Three in 5 hosts believe guests should offer money or an item to offset costs, and if they don't, 25% of hosts may withhold an invitation for next year.
"Inflation is still playing a really big part in what people are doing around Thanksgiving," Schulz said. "It just makes it all the more necessary for people hosting to do what they can to turn it into a potluck where they get everybody involved" — capturing the spirit of that original harvest feast.
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Janna Herron is a Senior Columnist at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X @JannaHerron.
