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There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two trends; firstly a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and secondly, an increasing amount of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. In light of that, when we looked at Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) and its ROCE trend, we weren't exactly thrilled.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What Is It?
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. To calculate this metric for Texas Instruments, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.17 = US$5.4b ÷ (US$36b - US$3.6b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).
Therefore, Texas Instruments has an ROCE of 17%. In absolute terms, that's a satisfactory return, but compared to the Semiconductor industry average of 7.2% it's much better.
Check out our latest analysis for Texas Instruments
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Texas Instruments compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Texas Instruments .
The Trend Of ROCE
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Texas Instruments doesn't inspire confidence. Around five years ago the returns on capital were 36%, but since then they've fallen to 17%. And considering revenue has dropped while employing more capital, we'd be cautious. This could mean that the business is losing its competitive advantage or market share, because while more money is being put into ventures, it's actually producing a lower return - "less bang for their buck" per se.
The Bottom Line
From the above analysis, we find it rather worrisome that returns on capital and sales for Texas Instruments have fallen, meanwhile the business is employing more capital than it was five years ago. Yet despite these poor fundamentals, the stock has gained a huge 105% over the last five years, so investors appear very optimistic. Regardless, we don't feel too comfortable with the fundamentals so we'd be steering clear of this stock for now.
If you want to continue researching Texas Instruments, you might be interested to know about the 1 warning sign that our analysis has discovered.