No Pain, No Gain: What Could Drive Teva's Valuation in 2016?
Migraine prevention
Based on discussions with the FDA related to study design, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) expects to initiate a trial for its drug for migraine prevention, TEV-48125, in the second half of 2016. The trial will include testing the efficacy of the drug for chronic and episodic migraines.
Teva has planned to conduct phase 3 clinical trials at 145 sites across the United States and Europe. The company expects to submit the biologics license application for TEV-48125 to the FDA in 2018.
Obtained through the acquisition of Labrys Biologics in 2014, TEV-48125 could make Teva Pharmaceutical a leader in the migraine prevention segment. If the drug manages to post positive results in its phase 3 trial, it could boost share prices of Teva as well as those of the SPDR MSCI ACWI ex-US ETF (CWI). Teva Pharmaceutical makes up about 0.33% of CWI’s total portfolio holdings.
Clinical results
Compared with the results published by Alder Biopharmaceuticals, Amgen (AMGN), and Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) for their anti-calcitonin gene-related peptide migraine drugs, Teva Pharmaceuticals’ TEV-48125 has managed to demonstrate better efficacy and safety in its phase 2 clinical trials.
Additionally, Teva is the only company to report data for chronic migraine cases. TEV-48125 has demonstrated clinical superiority in treating chronic migraine cases over Allergan’s (AGN) Botox. The company has also planned to conduct clinical trials targeted at cluster headaches, which affect about 600,000 people in the United States and 600,000 people in Europe. In the next part of this series, we’ll explore why analysts expect Teva’s net profit margins to rise in 2016.
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