Tesla could be in serious trouble if Musk were out

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Shares of Tesla (TSLA) tumbled Friday, extending losses after Thursday’s news that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit accusing Tesla CEO Elon Musk of defrauding investors when he tweeted last month that he was considering taking the company private.

The stock was down 13.9% to $264.77 per share at market close Friday.

The SEC’s complaint alleges that Musk “falsely indicated” that he could “take Tesla private at a purchase price that reflected a substantial premium over Tesla stock’s then-current share price, that funding for this multi-billion dollar transaction had been secured, and that the only contingency was a shareholder vote.” Musk “had not even discussed, much less confirmed, key deal terms, including price, with any potential funding source,” the SEC said in its complaint.

The lawsuit seeks an order for Musk to disgorge ill-gotten gains, pay penalties and be banned from serving as an officer or director of a public company.

Tesla could be in trouble without Musk

While Musk’s fate at the company is uncertain, at least one analyst warns that Tesla could have issues raising much-needed capital without Musk at the helm.

“Historically, Tesla has had easy access to capital markets, largely due to the public’s perception of Musk as a visionary,” UBS analyst Colin Langan wrote in a note. “Without Musk, investors may no longer be willing to continue funding a company that has never reported an annual profit.”

Tesla’s free cash flow in the second quarter alone totaled negative $739.5 million, bringing the company to a net loss of $717.5 million, the company reported in August. Langan estimates Tesla would need to raise capital in 2019.

Langan reiterated his “sell” rating of the stock with a $190 price target.

FILE PHOTO: Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk attends a forum on startups in Hong Kong, China January 26, 2016. REUTERS/Bobby Yip/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk attends a forum on startups in Hong Kong, China January 26, 2016. REUTERS/Bobby Yip/File Photo

The SEC’s complaint prompted Citigroup analysts to downgrade Tesla’s stock to “sell” from “neutral” Friday, according to a note to clients.

“There’s little question that Mr. Musk’s departure would likely cause harm to Tesla’s brand, stakeholder confidence and fundraising,” analysts wrote in the note. “If Mr. Musk ends up staying on, the reputational harm from this might still prevent the stock from immediately returning to ‘normal.'”

The analysts added that it’s a “risk/reward call,” but that “even after the post-close stock pullback ($to 274), risk/reward is still tilted negatively.”

The company and its directors are “fully confident in Elon, his integrity, and his leadership,” according to a joint statement from Tesla and its board of directors. “Our focus remains on the continued ramp of Model 3 production and delivering for our customers, shareholders and employees.”