Analyst: Tesla is like ‘Blackberry when the iPhone came out’

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Some (but not all) analysts view Tesla’s (TSLA) latest earnings beat — a rare win for a vehicle manufacturer with a wobbly production and delivery track record, sparse history of profitability, and an erratic chief executive — as a fluke.

And one bearish analyst argues that with looming luxury electric vehicle competition from other automakers means that Tesla’s prospects are more uncertain than ever.

Tesla is … like Palm Pilot when the Blackberry [BB] came out, or it’s like Blackberry when the iPhone [APPL] came out,” Mark B. Spiegel, a managing member of Tesla-shorting Stanphyl Capital, told Yahoo Finance’s Final Round on Thursday. “It was a first gen product, and these other products are better built and are nicer inside too.”

A pedestrian using a smartphone walks past a Tesla Inc. showroom in Beijing, China, on Saturday, July 7, 2018. (Photo: Giulia Marchi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
A pedestrian using a smartphone walks past a Tesla Inc. showroom in Beijing, China, on Saturday, July 7, 2018. (Photo: Giulia Marchi/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

‘Massive competition in every aspect’

Tesla may be “the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market,” Spiegel wrote in an upcoming note to investors. Tesla carries a troubled balance sheet even in the absence of direct competitors, “but will soon be confronted with massive competition in every aspect of its business,” he added. Tesla has about $3 billion in cash on hand and burned through about $1.8 billion in cash in the first half of 2018.

Spiegel cited upcoming electric vehicle offerings from Jaguar and Volkswagen as sources of concern for Tesla in the luxury EV space. Jaguar’s (TTM) first all-electric vehicle, the I-Pace, hits US dealer lots in November, and the model has been deemed “legitimate competition” to Tesla for its comparable price points and similar goal of targeting the luxury EV market. The Audi (NSU.DE) E tron and the Porsche (PAH3.DE) Taycan, both electric vehicles, are also slated to enter the playing field in the coming months.

An attendee takes a photo of a Porsche AG Taycan electric automobile as the luxury automaker celebrates its 70th anniversary in Stuttgart, Germany, on Friday, June 8, 2018. (Photo: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
An attendee takes a photo of a Porsche AG Taycan electric automobile as the luxury automaker celebrates its 70th anniversary in Stuttgart, Germany, on Friday, June 8, 2018. (Photo: Alex Kraus/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Likewise, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess recently said the company will come out with vehicles “that can do anything like Tesla” at half the price in 2020, according to a report by electric vehicle blog Electrek. Volkswagen plans to partner with Korean company SK Innovation for a Gigafactory to build battery cells, according to reports from German publication Manager Magazin. During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call with investors, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla’s investment in its Gigafactory a major competitive edge.

“The fact of the matter is we made the investment in the Gigafactory and other companies didn’t…but I’m sure they will over time,” Musk said. “But that’s what has put us in quite a strong competitive position right now.”

‘A busted growth story’

In the wake of the competition, Spiegel doesn’t think Tesla will be able to keep pace.