The board of Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) has announced that it will be paying its dividend of $2.20 on the 13th of May, an increased payment from last year's comparable dividend. This takes the dividend yield to 7.7%, which shareholders will be pleased with.

See our latest analysis for Ternium

Ternium's Earnings Easily Cover The Distributions

If the payments aren't sustainable, a high yield for a few years won't matter that much. Based on the last payment, the company wasn't making enough to cover what it was paying to shareholders. This situation certainly isn't ideal, and could place significant strain on the balance sheet if it continues.

Looking forward, earnings per share is forecast to rise by 91.0% over the next year. Under the assumption that the dividend will continue along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 59% which would be quite comfortable going to take the dividend forward.

Dividend Volatility

Although the company has a long dividend history, it has been cut at least once in the last 10 years. Since 2014, the dividend has gone from $0.65 total annually to $3.30. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18% a year over that time. It is great to see strong growth in the dividend payments, but cuts are concerning as it may indicate the payout policy is too ambitious.

Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to see if earnings per share is growing. Ternium's earnings per share has shrunk at 14% a year over the past five years. Dividend payments are likely to come under some pressure unless EPS can pull out of the nosedive it is in. However, the next year is actually looking up, with earnings set to rise. We would just wait until it becomes a pattern before getting too excited.

Ternium's Dividend Doesn't Look Great

In conclusion, we have some concerns about this dividend, even though it being raised is good. The company's earnings aren't high enough to be making such big distributions, and it isn't backed up by strong growth or consistency either. Overall, the dividend is not reliable enough to make this a good income stock.

Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. Just as an example, we've come across 3 warning signs for Ternium you should be aware of, and 1 of them is significant. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.