Term Sheet — Friday, April 1

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Random Ramblings

Please don't shoot the messenger, but... I'm beginning to question the value of some messages I've delivered to you, dear readers.

At the end of each month, I've written about monthly mutual fund reports published by Fidelity Investments, which include carrying values on the dozens of privately-held companies in which Fidelity holds stock. The idea is that Fidelity is giving us a peek into the opaque world of what "unicorn" companies like Dropbox and Snapchat are really worth. Not quite in real-time, but much more current than referring to the last round of venture capital financing.

Yesterday we discussed how Fidelity lowered the value of most of its private company holdings between Jan. 29 and Feb. 29, even though the NASDAQ composite rose modestly over that same period. Thus bad headlines for companies that were cut particularly deep, such as Dropbox, Cloudera, and Zenefits.

The trouble, however, is that we have almost no idea how Fidelity is actually valuing any of these companies. Yes, the Boston-based mutual fund giant does say that its marks are determined by a fair value committee that is not influenced by its mutual fund managers. After that, however, it's a super secret recipe that is not to be shared with us reporters (let alone with mutual fund clients who actually, you know, have money tied up in these companies).

Is Fidelity relying on a bucket of public market comps to help value each privately-held company? Probably, although it's not terribly appropriate to judge a high-growth (and immature) tech startup against a group of slower (but more proven) companies that it is seeking to disrupt. And in some cases, adequate public comps are pretty tough to find. After all, what is Fidelity marking SpaceX against? What about Uber?

More importantly, Fidelity is unlikely to be receiving monthly financial reports from these companies - namely because VC-backed startups don't typically share such info with their passive investors on more than a quarterly basis. Moreover, it's even possible that Fidelity receives no detailed financial information from some of these companies, as that's often a trade-off that comes from being a later-stage investor without board rights. I'm sure that in some cases Fidelity does have monthly access to board decks that contain P&L statements, but it's hardly uniform nor comprehensive.