Russia’s increasingly tense relationship with its neighbors in Europe worsened last week with a series of diplomatic, political and economic exchanges that highlighted the complex dynamics at work in Eastern Europe.
Early last week, according to state-run news agency Interfax, Russia’s Prosecutor General reportedly began examining the “legality” of the former United Soviet Socialist Republics’ 1991 decision to recognize the independence of the three Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The report came just a week after the Russian government declared the 1954 recognition of Ukraine’s sovereignty over Crimea unconstitutional.
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The latter was seen by many as a retroactive justification for the Russian invasion of Crimea last year and the “annexation” of the region months later.
This, understandably, made many in the three Baltic nations nervous. Russia has been increasingly aggressive in the region, sending fighter planes, bombers, and naval assets close to and sometimes into the territory of its smaller neighbors.
The Baltic Republics, however, are all members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which means an attack on them is considered an attack on all NATO members, including the United States. This point was noted by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief of staff Sergei Ivanov, who on said it was “raving nonsense” to think that Russia would consider attacking a NATO-aligned country.
"We are talking about an elephant and a pug, a behemoth and a house cat,” Ivanov said, according to government-run Sputnik News. “That is the comparability of our military budgets. We have very different military assets, but the most important question is, ‘Why would we do this?’ Do you seriously think that we want to unleash war with NATO? Are we suicidal?”
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By Wednesday, the prosecutors’ office had walked back the possibility of declaring the recognition of the Baltic Republics illegal. However, it wasn’t the end of the week’s tension with Russia’s neighbors. Talks between Moscow and Ukraine regarding natural gas shipments broke down, and Russia stopped the flow of natural gas to its Western neighbor.
The talks, complicated by the invasion of Crimea and Russia’s support for rebels in Eastern Ukraine that have been fighting to separate from the Kiev government and be annexed by Russia, fell apart amid pricing disagreements. Russia argued that in the midst of a price slump for energy, it could not longer offer Ukraine a discount on natural gas.