Telstra Group Limited's (ASX:TLS) Financial Prospects Don't Look Very Positive: Could It Mean A Stock Price Drop In The Future?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sun, Jan 19, 2025, 6:52 PM 4 min read

Telstra Group's (ASX:TLS) stock up by 3.6% over the past three months. Given that the markets usually pay for the long-term financial health of a company, we wonder if the current momentum in the share price will keep up, given that the company's financials don't look very promising. Specifically, we decided to study Telstra Group's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for Telstra Group

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Telstra Group is:

10% = AU$1.8b ÷ AU$17b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. So, this means that for every A$1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of A$0.10.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Telstra Group's Earnings Growth And 10% ROE

At first glance, Telstra Group's ROE doesn't look very promising. However, given that the company's ROE is similar to the average industry ROE of 11%, we may spare it some thought. Having said that, Telstra Group's net income growth over the past five years is more or less flat. Bear in mind, the company's ROE is not very high. Hence, this provides some context to the flat earnings growth seen by the company.

We then compared Telstra Group's net income growth with the industry and found that the average industry growth rate was 12% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:TLS Past Earnings Growth January 20th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is TLS fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Telstra Group Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

With a high three-year median payout ratio of 99% (implying that the company keeps only 0.6% of its income) of its business to reinvest into its business), most of Telstra Group's profits are being paid to shareholders, which explains the absence of growth in earnings.

In addition, Telstra Group has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 93% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Telstra Group's future ROE will rise to 17% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Conclusion

Overall, we would be extremely cautious before making any decision on Telstra Group. The low ROE, combined with the fact that the company is paying out almost if not all, of its profits as dividends, has resulted in the lack or absence of growth in its earnings. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.