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What underlying fundamental trends can indicate that a company might be in decline? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after we looked into Telesat (TSE:TSAT), the trends above didn't look too great.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Telesat:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.042 = CA$255m ÷ (CA$6.3b - CA$290m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2024).
So, Telesat has an ROCE of 4.2%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Telecom industry average of 8.7%.
View our latest analysis for Telesat
Above you can see how the current ROCE for Telesat compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Telesat .
What The Trend Of ROCE Can Tell Us
We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Telesat. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 9.0% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. Since returns are falling and the business has the same amount of assets employed, this can suggest it's a mature business that hasn't had much growth in the last five years. So because these trends aren't typically conducive to creating a multi-bagger, we wouldn't hold our breath on Telesat becoming one if things continue as they have.
The Bottom Line On Telesat's ROCE
In summary, it's unfortunate that Telesat is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last three years have experienced a 59% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. That being the case, unless the underlying trends revert to a more positive trajectory, we'd consider looking elsewhere.
Telesat does have some risks, we noticed 4 warning signs (and 2 which are potentially serious) we think you should know about.