In 2018, during Donald Trump’s first presidential term, he imposed tariffs on Chinese imports because he felt the US trade deficit with China was too high.
Trump is promising more tariffs on Chinese imports during his second term, but this time, the rationale is different. Trump wants additional tariffs to punish China for fentanyl produced illegally in the country that ends up on American streets, contributing to the opioid epidemic. The US trade deficit with China is still large. Trump has just come up with a different problem he thinks tariffs can solve.
Tariffs, in fact, are becoming Trump’s silver-bullet solution to everything. Here’s a rundown of what he has threatened so far:
Mexico: Tariffs of 25% on all imports, unless Mexico helps stem the flow of migrants and fentanyl into the United States.
Canada: Same as Mexico, although few unauthorized migrants enter the United States from Canada.
China: Tariffs of 10% on all imports unless fentanyl shipments decline. While campaigning, Trump called for new tariffs on Chinese imports as high as 60%.
The “BRICS” nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and other lesser-developed countries): A 100% tariff if they try to develop a common currency that could rival the US dollar.
Everybody else: A 10% "baseline" tariff on all imports to the United States, from everywhere.
In addition, Trump said during this year's presidential campaign that he’d consider a tariff of 200% or more on cars imported from Mexico to basically prevent any Mexican-built vehicles from entering the United States. He threatened a 200% tariff on John Deere equipment if it is made in Mexico for sale in the United States. He even suggested replacing the US income tax with revenue drawn from dramatically higher tariffs.
“To me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is 'tariff,'” Trump said during an October 2024 interview. “It needs a public relations firm.”
Economists are far less enamored. Tariffs are taxes paid by the importing country, with the costs of US tariffs borne by American businesses and consumers. Tariffs can benefit domestic producers but generally make production less efficient and more expensive. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that if enacted in full, Trump’s proposed tariffs would cost the typical family more than $2,600 per year in higher costs and other trade-offs. There would be further damage to the US economy if other nations retaliated with their own tariffs on US exports, as they normally do.
Investors, however, have also caught on to Trump’s schtick: He threatens draconian tariffs but mostly ends up bluffing. While campaigning for president in 2016, for example, he called for tariffs as high as 45% on all Chinese imports. As president, however, he imposed carefully targeted tariffs of just 7.5% to 25%, while exempting most finished consumer goods to prevent sticker shock shoppers might face if the price of hundreds of everyday items suddenly jumped.