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Tariff turmoil prompts cloudy forecasts from companies for the year ahead

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NEW YORK (AP) — Uncertainty continues to hang over the latest round of financial results and forecasts for companies both big and small as they try to navigate a global trade system severely shaken by a shift in U.S. policy.

Tariffs and the stark shift in policy has also shaken consumer and business confidence. The U.S. economy shrank during the first quarter of the year, its first drop in three years. Consumer spending ramped up in March, likely an effort to get ahead of tariffs, but fell for the entire quarter. Meanwhile, companies have been pulling back on hiring.

Roughly half of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their latest quarterly financial results, but the focus has been on how they will adjust to tariffs and any change in consumers’ behavior. The focus remains blurry for both companies and investors because of the on-again-off-again nature of President Donald Trump’s policy

Trump has implemented a range of tariffs on goods from some of the biggest U.S. trading partners and many of those countries have hit back with retaliatory tariffs. At the same time, Trump has pulled back or postponed some tariffs. The situation remains unpredictable and that is problematic for companies trying to plan ahead and investors looking for stability.

Here’s what companies are saying about tariffs and the potential impact:

Caterpillar

Caterpillar’s latest profit and revenue results fell sharply from a year ago and they also missed Wall Street forecasts.

The heavy machinery maker and industrial bellwether is among the many companies giving investors an uncertain forecast. Its equipment is used by the construction, mining and energy industries. Wall Street often uses Caterpillar’s financial position and forecasts as a gauge for how well those industries are performing or will potentially perform in the quarter and year ahead.

Without any impact from tariffs, the company expects sales and revenue in 2025 to match the prior year. With the current tariffs in place, sales and revenue are expected to dip slightly.

Stanley Black & Decker

Stanley Black & Decker said it raised prices in April and plans to raise prices again in the third quarter of the year as a reaction to tariffs.

The maker of drills and other tools trimmed its earnings forecast for the year, based on the impact of tariffs and planned adjustments to its supply chain.

“In light of the current environment, we are accelerating adjustments to our supply chain and exploring all options as we seek to minimize the impact of tariffs on end users while balancing the need to protect our business and our ability to innovate for years to come,” said CEO Donald Allan, Jr., in a statement.