Unlock stock picks and a broker-level newsfeed that powers Wall Street. Upgrade Now
Target issues rough first quarter profit warning due to Trump tariffs

In This Article:

Target (TGT) may have to do a lot more this year than open Warby Parker (WRBY) eyeglass shops as it becomes the latest retailer to warn about the impact of Trump tariffs.

The discount retailer delivered sales, gross profit margin, and earnings beats for the fourth quarter on Tuesday before market open. Target credited sequential improvements in sales of apparel and home goods for the better-than-expected quarter.

Shares fluctuated between gains and losses in pre-market trading.

But the cheery news stopped with the holiday numbers — though the print showed margins and sales fell year on year.

For one, Target once again underperformed rival Walmart's (WMT) sales growth in stores and online as it ramped up price rollbacks and offered expanded grocery assortments.

Listen: Will Trump tariffs hammer retail stocks?

Further, Target issued what amounts to a first quarter profit warning amid fresh Trump tariffs on goods from China.

NYSE - Nasdaq Real Time Price USD
117.82
-
(-2.43%)
As of 9:30:05 AM EST. Market Open.
TGT WMT

"In light of ongoing consumer uncertainty and a small decline in February net sales, combined with tariff uncertainty and the expected timing of certain costs within the fiscal year, the company expects to see meaningful year-over-year profit pressure in its first quarter relative to the remainder of the year," Target said in a statement.

Walmart issued soft full-year guidance several weeks ago, pinning the blame on tariff uncertainty.

Read more: What are tariffs, and how do they affect you?

Target declined to share specific first quarter earnings guidance. Yahoo Finance data shows Wall Street analysts were looking for a slight first quarter year-on-year earnings improvement.

The company will hold an investor day in New York City and will have a tall order in reawakening the near-term bull thesis on the stock following the guidance. Target's stock is down 9% year to date and off by 21% in the past year. In the past five years, Target's stock has fallen 28% compared to a 13% advance for the S&P 500 (^GSPC).

Earnings analysis: Beats, but at a cost to margins

  • Fourth quarter net sales: -3.1% year over year to $30.9 billion, vs. estimates for $30.67 billion

  • Gross profit margin: 26.2% vs. 26.6% a year ago, vs. estimates for 25.5%

  • Diluted earnings per share: Down 19% year over year to $2.41, vs. estimates for $2.26 (guidance: $1.85 to $2.45)

  • Comparable sales: Up 1.5% year over year, vs. 1.18% estimate (Last year comparable sales fell 4.4%; Walmart US reported a 4.6% gain in its fourth quarter.)

    • Digital comparable sales: Up 8.7%

What else caught our attention: The tariff warning

  • Inventory rose $854 million from the year-ago period.

  • The company repurchased $506 million of its stock in the quarter; $8.7 billion remains available to repurchase under a prior authorization.

  • The number of transactions rose 2.1% in the quarter, while the average transaction amount dropped 0.6%.

  • Full-year earnings per share are projected to be $8.80 to $9.80 (fiscal 2024: $8.86), compared to estimates of $9.24.