Tamalpais Union High School District, CA -- Moody's assigns Aaa to Tamalpais UHSD, CA's 2021 GO Refunding Bonds; outlook is stable

Rating Action: Moody's assigns Aaa to Tamalpais UHSD, CA's 2021 GO Refunding Bonds; outlook is stable

Global Credit Research - 21 Jan 2021

New York, January 21, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Aaa to Tamalpais Union High School District's $37.1 million in 2021 General Obligation Refunding Bonds (Federally Taxable). The district has $89.4 million in outstanding general obligation (GO) bonds, including the bonds being refunded with this offering, and of which $41.6 million is rated by Moody's. The outlook is stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The Aaa rating reflects the district's large and growing tax base, benefiting from unusually strong resident wealth and income measures and the district's location within the vibrant Bay Area economy. It further reflects the district's very low level of debt and moderate pension liability. The rating incorporates the strength of the district's financial operation, which benefits from the financial flexibility provided by entrenchment in community-funded status. The rating considers the district's strong management, which proactively addressed a developing structural deficit resulting from enrollment growth outpacing tax base growth. The district both secured ongoing revenue and cut expenditures, which will sustain its financial position in the near term.

We regard the coronavirus pandemic as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety. However, we do not see any material immediate credit risks for the district, as its revenue stream is not reliant on state aid. The district has used federal and state coronavirus-related funding to cover costs related to the pandemic.

RATING OUTLOOK

The outlook is stable based on our view that tax base growth will result in continued revenue increases and enrollment is expected to decline beginning in fiscal 2022. This combination will enable management to capitalize on prior expenditure reductions to maintain the district's financial position at a level consistent with both management's projections and with the rating.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OF THE RATING

- Not applicable

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING

- Decline in reserves beyond what is projected by the district

- Material increase in balance sheet leverage from new debt or increased pension liability

LEGAL SECURITY

The GO bonds are secured by the levy of ad valorem taxes, unlimited as to rate or amount, upon all taxable property within the district. The portion of the levy restricted for debt service is collected, held, and transferred directly to the paying agent by Marin County (Aaa stable) on behalf of the district.