Tactics and Analysis, July 4, 2017 – Euro Continues to Test Highs

The Euro has enjoyed a good and steady trend upwards against the U.S Dollar. The States are on holiday today and this could affect markets today. However, the prospects for the Euro have improved via market sentiment and it may continue to attract speculative buying.

Euro Testing Short Term Highs

The Euro came off its highs yesterday, but remains within the upper boundaries of its short-term range.

The vicinity of 1.14 remains in sight for the Euro against the U.S Dollar and may stay a battle ground over the next couple of days. Today’s Independence Day celebrations in the U.S means trading volumes in forex will be lighter than normal, which could cause some short-term volatility.

EUR/USD 1H Chart
EUR/USD 1H Chart

However, the Euro has provided a consistent upwards trend for speculators the past few weeks and remains an intriguing opportunity. Recent economic data, including yesterday’s Purchasing Managers Index reports from the Manufacturing sector suggest growth is being attained in the European Union incrementally.

Euro’s Rise on Macron and ECB

The Euro has enjoyed a variety of positive influences the past few months. One of the leading causes for better sentiment among investors has been the victory of Emmanuel Macron in France. The other recent big piece of impetus occurred last week when European Central Bank President Mario Draghi acknowledged monetary policy in the E.U will likely be tightened in the coming year.

EUR/USD 4H Chart
EUR/USD 4H Chart

The combination of positive rhetoric from the ECB President Draghi, and French leader Macron has certainly helped market psychology. The mid-term trend for the Euro, just like the short-term shows positive momentum. The ECB will also be conducting an important monetary policy meeting later in July.

Outlook Improves for European Union

Since December of 2016 the Euro has put in a steady rise of value. The additional clarity delivered via the U.S Federal Reserve has also created a calm perspective in forex, which has helped traders consider their long-term outlooks with a tranquil demeanor.

The Euro’s recent climb in value has pushed the European currency above last summer’s heights against the U.S Dollar. And interestingly, the Euro is now near resistance which has not been tested since May of 2016.

EUR/USD Daily Chart
EUR/USD Daily Chart

In other words, the Euro is now testing its pre-Brexit vote values. And it appears that the Euro has beaten its skeptics and is becoming an attractive currency again to speculators whose long-term outlooks have improved for the European Union and its prospects.

In the short term, we believe the Euro may be positive. In the mid-term and long-term we are unbiased.