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For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But if you try your hand at stock picking, you risk returning less than the market. We regret to report that long term T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:TROW) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 29% in three years, versus a market return of about 38%.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
See our latest analysis for T. Rowe Price Group
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
T. Rowe Price Group saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 12% per year, over the last three years. This fall in EPS isn't far from the rate of share price decline, which was 11% per year. That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time, despite the disappointment. Rather, the share price has approximately tracked EPS growth.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that T. Rowe Price Group has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for T. Rowe Price Group the TSR over the last 3 years was -19%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
T. Rowe Price Group provided a TSR of 8.0% over the last twelve months. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 1.0% per year over five year. This could indicate that the company is winning over new investors, as it pursues its strategy. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.