THE TAKEAWAY: Swiss trade balance at 2.3 billion in January, beats expectations -> Exports provide for about 50% of Swiss GDP -> Little reaction in Franc trading

The Swiss trade balance was reported at 2.3 billion Francs in January, beating expectations for 1.7 billion and December’s revised .9 billion trade balance. Exports rose an unexpected 3.7% over the month, much better than the revised 1.8% decline in exports in December. Swiss imports dropped 0.5% in January, according to the Federal Customs Offices.

Exports provided more than 50% of the Swiss GDP in 2011, meaning the improved trade balance is a good sign for economic growth in Q1. The Swiss National Bank maintains a 1.20 floor in EUR/CHF trading to help keep export prices low, and the recent rise in the Euro against the Swiss Franc may have helped improve foreign demand.

However, the Swiss Franc did not significantly react to the trade balance release in Forex markets. EUR/CHF is now trading slightly above 1.2300, and may see support at 1.2261, by the 61.8% retracement of the rally from January 2 to the January high. Resistance might be provided at 1.2320, by the 50% retracement of the same rally.

EURCHFDaily: February 21, 2013

Chart created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0

-- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to bbspier@fxcm.com .

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