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Existing homes sales rose by 4.8% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.15M and are now up 6.1% from November 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
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Total housing inventory at the end of November increased to 1.33 million units from 1.15 million units in October, up 17.7% from a year ago.
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The median existing-home sales price in November was $406,100, up 4.7% from a year ago.
What happened: In November, existing home sales reached 4.15M seasonally adjusted annual rate, higher than Zillow’s expectations based on its forecast of 4.01M ahead of this report.
What Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen thinks:
With significantly higher mortgage rates, and so 2025 mortgage rate expectations, Zillow Research downgraded its longer-run 2025 existing home sales forecasts. At the same time, we shifted up the shorter run sales forecasts – and today’s release confirmed that optimism. Improved momentum in new listings from existing owners earlier in the Fall, led to higher sales volumes to close out the year than we would have expected after the dramatic increase in average mortgage rates over November. NAR’s seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales came in at 4.15M in November, up 6.1% from last November, and significantly stronger than the forecast made at the beginning of the month, which predicted a 2.7% year-over-year increase.
In many ways, the surprising strength behind November existing home sales reflect the same surprising strength in general economic data – many consumers are pushing through despite higher prices (and higher mortgage rates). During inflationary cycles such as the one we’re in, good, strong economic news like that is often followed by bad news: higher mortgage rates. Less able to ignore such signals of economic heat, we close out another year expecting higher rates for longer as the Federal Reserve system potentially renews its fight against a “too hot” economy and general inflation.
Moving forward, Zillow forecasting expects this short run momentum in sales volume to dissipate under the renewed pressure of higher rates. In longer run forecasts released earlier this month, total 2025 sales are expected to lift just 2.5% from 2024 full annual count, a downward revision from our forecast last month calling for a 6.7% lift.
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