It's shaping up to be a tough period for Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ:RUN), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$537m missing analyst predictions by 4.9%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.37 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Sunrun

Following the latest results, Sunrun's 24 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$2.39b in 2025. This would be a meaningful 17% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 85% to US$0.26. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.44b and losses of US$0.58 per share in 2025. Although the revenue estimates have fallen somewhat, Sunrun'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a considerable decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$22.87, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Sunrun analyst has a price target of US$38.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Sunrun's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Sunrun's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 22% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Sunrun's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.