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TPI Composites, Inc. (NASDAQ:TPIC) shareholders will doubtless be very grateful to see the share price up 95% in the last week. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 87% in that time. The recent bounce might mean the long decline is over, but we are not confident. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.
While the last five years has been tough for TPI Composites shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
See our latest analysis for TPI Composites
Because TPI Composites made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
In the last five years TPI Composites saw its revenue shrink by 1.5% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price fall of 13% (per year, over five years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. It takes a certain kind of mental fortitude (or recklessness) to buy shares in a company that loses money and doesn't grow revenue. Fear of becoming a 'bagholder' may be keeping people away from this stock.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
TPI Composites is well known by investors, and plenty of clever analysts have tried to predict the future profit levels. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think TPI Composites will earn in the future (free analyst consensus estimates)
A Different Perspective
TPI Composites shareholders are down 42% for the year, but the market itself is up 25%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 13% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with TPI Composites (at least 2 which are a bit concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.