Strong week for Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP) shareholders doesn't alleviate pain of three-year loss

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It's not possible to invest over long periods without making some bad investments. But you have a problem if you face massive losses more than once in a while. So take a moment to sympathize with the long term shareholders of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (NYSE:AAP), who have seen the share price tank a massive 83% over a three year period. That might cause some serious doubts about the merits of the initial decision to buy the stock, to put it mildly. And over the last year the share price fell 57%, so we doubt many shareholders are delighted. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 33% in the last three months. We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It's a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it's worth keeping in mind there's more to life than money, anyway.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$81m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the three-year loss for shareholders.

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Given that Advance Auto Parts didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

In the last three years Advance Auto Parts saw its revenue shrink by 2.1% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price fall of 22% (per year, over three years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. Don't let a share price decline ruin your calm. You make better decisions when you're calm.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NYSE:AAP Earnings and Revenue Growth May 15th 2025

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Advance Auto Parts will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).