Strong Job Growth, Falling Jobless Rate Show U.S. Firming

Employers added more jobs than expected in November while the unemployment rate sank to a five-year low, upping the ante for the Federal Reserve to begin tapering its bond-buying program. But analysts and Wall Street don't expect a move until next year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 203,000 last month, bringing the three-month average to 193,000. The jobless rate tumbled to 7% from October's 7.3%.

"We'll take it," said John Silvia, chief economist with Wells Fargo Securities. "It's a strong number in several different ways and a pleasant surprise that suggests consumer spending will be a little stronger than expected in 2014.

The report, which follows a strong October jobs number and a string of generally positive economic data, raises the possibility that Federal Reserve policymakers could begin to taper sooner rather than later. The central bank holds its last policy meeting of the year Dec. 17-18.

But Silvia thinks the Fed will want to gauge how sustained the economy's momentum is, and will likely start easing off the pedal at its March meeting. Policymakers want to be as risk-averse as possible, and Vice Chair Janet Yellen, the nominated successor to soon-to-exit Fed Chair Ben Bernanke "has a strong bias to stay easy," he said.

Wall Street seemed to agree. The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 2.86% on Friday, though it climbed 12 ticks for the week to a two-month high. The S&P 500 jumped 1.1% after retreating modestly for five straight sessions.

John Canally, senior economist at LPL Financial, agrees with the March prediction. He thinks the Fed will use the December and January meetings to prepare jittery markets for the taper announcement.

"Ultimately the Fed's going to have to taper, and the market's not going to like it, but the market's going to realize it's because the economy is getting better," he said.

After many false starts, a true recovery may be taking hold. In the last week, reports showed manufacturing growth at a 2-1/2-year high and home sales rebounding despite rising mortgage rates.

Consumer confidence also has improved, according to the IBD/TIPP Economic Index and Friday's Reuters/University of Michigan gauge. Auto sales are robust, though many retailers have reported lackluster holiday sales so far.

The details of Friday's jobs report were broadly healthy, as well. Average hourly earnings and the average workweek both ticked up, and there were job gains across multiple categories. Canally is most cheered by ongoing hiring by state and local governments. The boost from state and local hiring could help propel the economy above a 3% growth rate in 2014, he said.