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*TLDR: Upgrade reflects Alt Season potential. Structural challenges persist.
What’s the full story? Compass Point upgrades COIN to Neutral, recognizing the potential for a modest "Alt Season" this summer.
While current April/May trends suggest Coinbase may generate only ~$1bn in annualized EBITDA, The firm sees early signs of renewed retail trading activity, spurred by rising Altcoin prices. Importantly, COIN’s fundamentals no longer align with Bitcoin’s trajectory—COIN is -20% YTD while BTC is +10%. Instead, COIN’s performance is increasingly tied to Altcoin prices, which drive retail engagement and influence USDC supply dynamics.
The firm acknowledges the possibility of a tactical Altcoin rally in the coming months. However, Compass Point remains cautious, noting structural challenges persist for Altcoins, particularly following major CEX listings. These headwinds continue to weigh on price performance, tempering longer-term optimism.
The firm’s upgrade reflects a nuanced view: short-term opportunity balanced against enduring risks in the broader altcoin ecosystem.
First Solar
What happened? On Tuesday, Wolfe upgraded First Solar Inc (NASDAQ:FSLR) to Outperform with a $221 price target.
*TLDR: Domestic moat remains intact. Chinese competition barred.
What’s the full story? Wolfe Research upgrades FSLR, citing newfound clarity on 45X credits, a pivotal development since election-year politics began in early 2024.
The analysts have long believed in broad support for domestic clean energy manufacturing but balanced this against budget concerns and anti-IRA sentiment. With House Ways & Means posing the greatest risk, the analysts now foresee even stronger backing in the full House and Senate. While proposed rules shorten the 45X timeline by a year, FSLR is positioned to earn $10 billion from the credits, equating to ~$92 per share.
FSLR’s domestic leadership remains unparalleled as the sole large-scale U.S. solar module manufacturer, entirely independent of foreign components like cells or wafers. Proposed Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions signal stringent barriers for Chinese manufacturers, further bolstering FSLR’s competitive edge in the U.S. market.
Wolfe Research views this as a significant tailwind for the company’s long-term positioning.
Wayfair
What happened? On Wednesday, Loop Capital downgraded Wayfair Inc (NYSE:W) to Sell with a $35 price target.
What’s the full story? Loop Capital downgrades Wayfair from Hold to Sell, maintaining a $35 price target based on long-term NOPAT estimates.
The brokerage’s 2025 sales forecast aligns with consensus, but it’s $70 million below next year’s estimate. While the stock surged 20% Monday following China tariff cuts—from 145% to 30% for a 90-day period—the move is overshadowed by tariff uncertainty. The market seems to price in Vietnam tariffs well below the original 46% reciprocal rate, but with far-from-certain outcomes, Loop Capital advises avoiding Wayfair shares.
The brokerage notes Wayfair’s management has painted an overly optimistic picture on inflation and supply chain challenges. Despite its May 1 earnings call emphasizing supplier price stability, Loop Capital believes this stance is unsustainable, even at lower tariffs. With the stock down 12% YTD in a flat market, the brokerage sees further downside risk post-recent rally. Wayfair’s long-term debt crept up in Q1, leaving no room for balance sheet improvement.
Until home furnishings regain growth momentum, Loop Capital views the risk-reward balance as skewed unfavorably.
Fluence
What happened? On Thursday, Jefferies downgraded Fluence Corporation Ltd (ASX:FLC) to Underperform with a $3 price target.
*TLDR:
What’s the full story? Jefferies is downgrading its rating, preempting an anticipated stock correction driven by policy headwinds uniquely unfavorable for the storage sector. The analyst believes the market will eventually digest the implications of proposed tariff and tax policies, which, as currently drafted, pose significant challenges. FEOC restrictions in the draft tax bill are more stringent than anticipated, with some industry voices suggesting they amount to a near repeal of the IRA. These restrictions disproportionately impact U.S. storage, given the heavy reliance on Chinese battery supply chains, leaving uncertainty about whether domestic OEMs can fully disentangle from China as the proposal implies.
Tariffs on China have been both unpredictable and counterproductive. FLNC, a key player, finds itself in a mixed position—it benefits from tariffs on Chinese competitors but suffers from importing Chinese inputs. The net impact on FLNC is unclear, but broader implications for the sector are negative, evidenced by stalled developer activity as they await further tariff reductions. With tariffs now at 41%, Jefferies notes another conundrum: developers are pausing construction, hoping for another downward revision. This dynamic compounds risks in the space, further weighing on the outlook.
HNI Corp.
What happened? On Friday, Longbow initiated coverage on HNI Corp (NYSE:HNI) at Buy with a $70 price target.
What’s the full story? Longbow is initiating coverage on HNI with a BUY rating, citing above-consensus earnings estimates and a compelling growth trajectory. HNI is a leader in the U.S. Workplace Furnishings (WF) and the top producer of Residential Hearth Products. A 2023 acquisition in the WF space, coupled with the opening of a new Mexican plant, is expected to deliver $0.70-$0.80 in incremental EPS over FY 2025-26, independent of volume growth. These synergies and cost efficiencies position HNI for significant earnings momentum.
The brokerage believes HNI’s WF business is well-positioned to capitalize on the return-to-office trend across North America, which is likely to drive demand for the next 24-36 months. With unit volumes still ~35% below pre-COVID levels, a strengthening order backlog signals substantial growth potential. Meanwhile, cost measures are improving incremental margins, further supporting earnings.
HNI’s Residential Building Products segment, a vertically integrated leader in fireplaces and stoves, continues to deliver resilient mid-teens EBIT margins. Longbow sees this business as uniquely differentiated, poised to grow alongside the eventual recovery in residential construction. Together, these factors underscore HNI’s compelling investment case.
