Stop Before Defense Stocks Hit All-Time High
Note: This article is courtesy of Iris.xyz
By Frank Holmes
First, it was Stan Druckenmiller, now it’s George Soros. Following billionaire former hedge fund manager Druckenmiller’s announcement that gold was his family office fund’s largest currency allocation, we learned last week that his old boss, billionaire investor George Soros, purchased a $264 million stake in Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold producer, after liquidating $3.5 billion in U.S.-listed stocks. Additionally, he disclosed owning call options on a gold ETF.
Soros’ investment can be held up as further proof that sentiment toward gold has decidedly shifted positive, following the challenging last three years.
London-based precious metals consultancy Metals Focus just released its Gold Focus 2016 report in which the group calls an end to the gold bear market that began in late 2011 after the metal hit its all-time high of $1,900 per ounce. “We are optimistic about gold over the rest of this year and our projections see it peaking at $1,350 in the fourth quarter,” the group writes. Global negative interest rate policy fears have reawakened investors’ confidence in gold as a reliable currency and store of value.
The group adds: “In the near term, there may well be some liquidations of tactical positions.” This is to be expected, especially at the start of summer, based on historical precedent
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Will Gold Follow Its Short or Long-Term Trading Pattern?
We’ve noticed that mining companies which have deleveraged their balance sheets this year have been some of the biggest gainers. Barrick, now Soros’s largest U.S.-listed allocation, started 18 months ago.
Glencore, Teck Resources and higher-risk junior producers such as Gran Colombia bounced off the canvas after being knocked down.
Related: 16 Glistening Gold ETFs Investors Should Follow
Gold equities always have a higher beta than bullion. Usually, a ±1 percent move translates into 2 to 3 percent in gold stocks.
Regardless of it being a bull or bear market, there are still fairly predictable intra-year trends in the price of gold. Below is an updated composite chart of the metal’s historical yearly patterns over the last five, 15 and 30 years, courtesy of Moore Research.
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