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Energy supermajor Chevron Corporation CVX is slated to release its first-quarter 2025 results on May 2, before market open. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings per share (EPS) and revenues is pegged at $2.30 per share and $47.9 billion, respectively.
The earnings estimates for the to-be-reported quarter have been revised downward by 7.6% over the past 30 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a decline of 21.5% from the year-ago reported number. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues, meanwhile, suggests a year-over-year decrease of a modest 1.8%.
For full-year 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s revenues is pegged at $198.5 billion, implying a drop of 2.1% year over year. The consensus mark for 2025 EPS stands at $8.42, indicating a contraction of around 16.2%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
In the trailing four quarters, the oil and gas company surpassed EPS estimates twice and missed in the other two, as reflected in the chart below.
Chevron Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Chevron Corporation price-eps-surprise | Chevron Corporation Quote
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Chevron this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
CVX has an Earnings ESP of -5.51% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
What’s Shaping Q1 Results?
Chevron’s earnings, particularly from its upstream operations, move in tandem with global oil prices — and that’s a double-edged sword in today’s uncertain climate. Lately, crude prices have swung sharply as escalating trade tensions cloud the demand outlook. The ongoing trade standoff, with the U.S. economy showing signs of strain and China ramping up its resistance to tariff pressure from the Trump administration, has made the energy market jittery. Adding to the downside risk, geopolitical easing — such as ceasefires in the Middle East and Ukraine — combined with rising supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers, has further weighed on oil prices. These broader economic and political shifts feed directly into oil demand and pricing expectations, which in turn affect how much Chevron earns per barrel produced. In other words, the company’s upstream earnings remain highly exposed to the ebbs and flows of macroeconomic policy and geopolitical noise.
Chevron’s production, however, offers a more stabilizing story. The company’s average output of crude oil and natural gas has remained over three million oil-equivalent barrels per day (BOE/d) since the third quarter of 2023, and this time its no exception. With strong volumes from the Permian basin — America's hottest and lowest-cost shale region — Chevron’s total production volume during the first quarter is estimated to have been 3.315 million BOE/d, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Taking these factors together, Zacks forecasts Chevron’s total upstream income to reach $4.2 billion for the quarter — down from the $5.2 billion reported in Q1 2024.
Chevron’s downstream segment reported a loss of $248 million in the previous quarter, compared to a profit of $1.15 billion in the same period a year earlier. This drastic swing reflects the impact of new global refining capacity from countries like China, Nigeria and Mexico, which is pressuring margins. Additionally, falling demand for products like jet fuel and ongoing structural headwinds could continue weighing on earnings. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for CVX’s first-quarter downstream income is pegged at $258 million, implying a plunge from $783 million recorded in the year-ago period. Given that downstream operations contribute a significant share of total revenues, this trend poses a meaningful drag on profitability.
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