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Starwood Property Trust STWD is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2024 results on Feb. 27, before the opening bell. The company’s results will likely reflect year-over-year declines in earnings and revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.
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In the last reported quarter, the mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT), focused on commercial property mortgages and commercial real estate, posted distributable earnings of 48 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 46 cents.
Over the trailing four quarters, the company outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings on one occasion and missed in the other three. On average, it delivered a surprise of 13.36% during this period.
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. Price and EPS Surprise
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. price-eps-surprise | STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. Quote
Let us see how things have shaped up prior to this announcement.
Factors at Play for STWD in Q4
The mREIT sector was under pressure in the fourth quarter due to high volatility in the fixed-income markets. Nonetheless, a positively sloped yield curve is anticipated to have supported mortgage REIT’s valuations. The yield curve steepened and then normalized in the quarter.
With this, agency mortgage REITs are likely to have witnessed a tangible book value increase as spreads on benchmark indices have tightened in the quarter. This is likely to have increased STWD’s book value per share in the quarter to be reported.
However, the U.S. commercial real estate market continued to be affected by the deterioration in the office real estate space. Also, the commercial MBS delinquency rate increased in the fourth quarter. This is expected to have affected STWD’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 rental revenues is pegged at $27.26 million, suggesting a 9.1% year-over-year fall.
Also, the company’s activities during the quarter were inadequate in gaining analyst confidence. Overall, The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 revenues is pegged at $472 million, suggesting a 9.6% year-over-year decline.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 EPS has been unchanged at 46 cents per share over the past seven days. The estimate indicates a year-over-year fall of 20.7%.
What Our Quantitative Model Predicts for STWD
Starwood Property does not have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.