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Starmer Faces Defining Moment in Campaign to Sway Trump
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Starmer Faces Defining Moment in Campaign to Sway Trump
Alex Wickham and Ellen Milligan
5 min read
(Bloomberg) -- The last time Keir Starmer crossed the Atlantic to meet Donald Trump the British prime minister needed to show he could avoid a personality clash with the once and future president. The stakes are considerably higher now.
Starmer’s trip to the White House next week — his first since Trump’s election to a second term in November — has the potential to define his time in office. While Starmer’s allies see an opportunity for Britain to rebuild its standing in Europe five years after Brexit, the notoriously cautious premier will have to take political risks to help secure the continent’s future.
“This is a moment for Keir Starmer to step up,” said Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser. “The opening is there, but it will take a boldness that is not necessarily his style.”
Starmer will follow French President Emmanuel Macron and Poland’s Andrzej Duda in a series of visits aimed at pulling Trump from the brink of abandoning Ukraine three years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion. The trip, which Starmer had been planning for weeks, has taken on new urgency after Trump officials berated European leaders for not taking on more responsibility for their own security while conceding several of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key demands against Ukraine’s formal alignment with the West.
Trump’s subsequent rejection of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a “dictator” has appalled British officials, who acknowledge that such behavior has edged toward the more extreme end of their pre-inauguration expectations. However, they have argued that Europe will achieve little by protesting every offense. Talks between the US and Russia are still in an early phase, leaving much to play for, one senior UK official said.
While Starmer has received Trump’s praise for being “very nice” and doing a “very good job,” the coming trip may show whether he’s also earned any respect. The British prime minister met the then-Republican candidate during a two-hour dinner at Trump Tower in September and they have shared seemingly warm phone calls in the intervening months, although Starmer steered clear of difficult topics.
Generations of British prime ministers have profited politically from bridging the trans-Atlantic divide, such as when Winston Churchill forged the “special relationship” during World War II. But they’ve sometimes paid a heavy cost, like how Tony Blair’s support for the unpopular Iraq War colored opinions of his premiership.
Starmer is in need of a boost abroad after a rocky start at home. He’s viewed less favorably than every recent premier save Liz Truss, who quit after just 49 days in office, according to a YouGov survey released this week.
The prime minister has three objectives in Washington, according to people familiar with his plans. Those include getting a US “backstop” for Ukrainian security guarantees, slowing the pace of talks with Russia and demonstrating Europe’s commitment to increasing defense spending.
The prime minister intends to argue that an enduring peace in Ukraine will be unachievable without US deterrence. UK and European officials have discussed requesting US intelligence support and air power to protect peacekeeping troops on the ground. One British official put the stakes in stark terms: If Trump doesn’t sign up, he risks being responsible for another world war.
Another argument offered by British officials is that Ukrainian consent is necessary to avoid a humiliating outcome in which Kyiv rejects the terms and fights on. Ukraine has enough military supplies to sustain fighting through the summer, a Western official said.
Starmer will also look to demonstrate that Europe heard Vice President JD Vance’s calls at the Munich Security Conference earlier this month for greater investment in defense. A British-French proposal for a 30,000-troop European “reassurance force” for Ukraine is central to that.
Starmer privately received congratulations from European allies for committing UK peace-keepers, an official said, adding that the crisis had seen him and Macron forge an effective working relationship. The prime minister also understands he will need to make a big commitment on defense spending to show he’s serious, the official said.
Starmer allies say Britain can affirm its traditional role as a European military leader, although its tight public finances limit its ambitions. Military chiefs have told the premier he needs to increase defense spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product before 2030, and then ramp it up to 3% in the years after.
Governing in a world led by Trump means new political arguments will need to be made at home, a Labour official said. The premier will need to convince voters and those Labour lawmakers who traditionally prioritize other public services over defense that increasing spending on the military is essential if Britain wants growth and security, even if it means cuts elsewhere, another said.
Starmer can prove himself to voters as the prime minister who took on a global leadership role, defending democratic values while making Britain stronger at home, an official said. He will be able to contrast himself with opposition Conservatives who hollowed out the military and weakened the economy, and a right-wing Reform UK party led by Nigel Farage which, while rising in polls in recent months, has struggled to respond to Trump’s policy on Ukraine.
Accusing Reform of being weak on national security and soft on Putin will be a key Labour attack line in the months ahead, a Labour official said. Another YouGov poll released this week showed the 77% of Britons believe that Russia is responsible for the war, compared with 3% who believed Ukraine was.
But first he’ll have to successfully navigate his encounter in the White House, where views about Ukraine are now substantially different.
“He is going to walk a tightrope in Washington. He has to make clear the reasons for supporting Ukraine without attracting the thunderbolts from Trump,” said Ricketts, the former national security advisor. “He can make the argument that if he is strong with Putin and gets a good deal for Ukraine that secures a lasting peace, that puts him in the history books.”
