It's shaping up to be a tough period for Stadler Rail AG (VTX:SRAIL), which a week ago released some disappointing full-year results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CHF3.3b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 50%, coming in at just CHF0.38 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Stadler Rail's six analysts is for revenues of CHF3.69b in 2025. This reflects a meaningful 13% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to shoot up 196% to CHF1.14. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CHF3.78b and earnings per share (EPS) of CHF1.32 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a real cut to earnings per share numbers.
View our latest analysis for Stadler Rail
Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the CHF20.46 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Stadler Rail, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at CHF23.20 and the most bearish at CHF17.00 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Stadler Rail's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 13% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 2.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.4% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Stadler Rail to grow faster than the wider industry.