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It's been a sad week for Spin Master Corp. (TSE:TOY), who've watched their investment drop 11% to CA$27.00 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$2.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 49% to hit US$0.77 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Check out our latest analysis for Spin Master
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Spin Master's eight analysts is for revenues of US$2.37b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 4.8% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 188% to US$2.30. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.11 in 2025. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Spin Master's earnings potential following these results.
The consensus price target fell 8.6% to CA$39.19, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Spin Master analyst has a price target of CA$47.12 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$32.08. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.7% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that Spin Master is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Spin Master following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Spin Master's future valuation.