SpaceX Missed Its Launch Goal in 2024 and Moved the Goalposts for 2025
Rich Smith, The Motley Fool
4 min read
In the early morning hours of Dec. 31, 2024, SpaceX ended its year as it began it, with one final launch of Starlink satellites into orbit. The launch marked SpaceX's 134th mission of the year (138 missions if you count Starship test flights).
SpaceX conducted more than half of all the space launches around the world last year. It sent up over 10 times more rockets than did America's second-most prolific launch company, Rocket Lab USA(NASDAQ: RKLB), and twice as many as the entire nation of China (which, after the U.S., is the most prolific launching country).
And yet, for the second year in a row, SpaceX still managed to miss its own goal in 2024. After promising 144 launches in early 2024, it fell a half-dozen short. Doh!
The third time's the charm
Not to worry, though: 2024 is over and a new year has already begun with SpaceX conducting its first launch of 2025 on Jan. 6. It did so again just two days later, and (as of this writing) is planning a third launch within 24 hours of that (on Jan. 9), followed by a possible next test flight (flight 7) of its Starship on Friday, Jan. 10.
At the rate SpaceX is going, with roughly four launches in five days, it should beat last year's number. Interestingly, though, the company seems to be a bit vague about its projected launch numbers for 2025.
Some industry observers are speculating that the privately held company could launch "upwards of 180 times" this year, after missing its magic number two years in a row. CEO Gwynne Shotwell won't be more specific than to say the target is somewhere between 175 and 180 Falcon launches in 2025.
More importantly, SpaceX plans to launch its Starship as many as 25 times in 2025.
From Falcon to Starship
This is more than just a PR move. SpaceX's emphasis on hitting a firm target for Starship launches (25) while setting a fuzzier target for Falcon launches (175 to 180) actually hints at a shift in long-term strategy at America's premier space company. The Falcon is on its way out, and SpaceX sees its future depending much more on its Starship.
Late last year, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved a SpaceX plan to quintuple its permitted launch rate of the world's biggest rocket, the Starship, from five times to 25 times annually.
No sooner had the FAA done that, though, than SpaceX began asking for even more. Speaking at the Baron Investment Conference in New York, Shotwell predicted that over the next four years, Starships will be launched 400 times -- roughly 100 times per year.
Shotwell told investors that the same rocket that helped SpaceX dominate the space launch industry, the Falcon 9, is already marked for obsolescence and will be phased out over the next six to eight years.
Image source: Getty Images.
The economics of spaceflight will change
It makes economic sense. While not yet fully developed, the Starship is improving with each test flight and is on a clear path toward becoming an operational launch system capable of carrying both cargo (more than 100 tons) and passengers (as many as 100 astronauts at a time) to low Earth orbit, to the moon, and even to Mars. For comparison, that's roughly five times the cargo that a Falcon 9 can carry, and 25 times as many astronauts as it usually carries on a Crew Dragon spacecraft.
Already today, before economies of scale kick in, it's believed to cost about $90 million per Starship flight, versus $70 million for a Falcon 9 flight -- about 30% more cost for 400% more cargo. According to SpaceX founder Elon Musk, Starship will eventually drive the cost of its launches below $10 million.
With numbers like these, it makes total sense that SpaceX would switch to the cheaper and more efficient Starship once it's ready and phase out the Falcon 9. The biggest question for investors is what everyone else in spaceflight (including Rocket Lab USA) is going to do when SpaceX has a rocket that can carry a ton of payload to orbit for just $100,000 (about $50 per kilogram) when everyone else has to charge closer to $10,000 per kilo just to break even!
Suffice it to say that space is going to get a lot harder to compete in for any company not named SpaceX.
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