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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Sonic Healthcare Limited (ASX:SHL) shareholders, since the share price is down 39% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 20%.
Now let's have a look at the company's fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
Check out our latest analysis for Sonic Healthcare
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Sonic Healthcare saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 27% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 15% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Sonic Healthcare's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Sonic Healthcare the TSR over the last 3 years was -32%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Investors in Sonic Healthcare had a tough year, with a total loss of 9.7% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 14%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.1% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Sonic Healthcare (1 is a bit unpleasant) that you should be aware of.