Retail spending during the 2024 holiday season exceeded expectations, with consumers demonstrating resilience in the face of economic uncertainties. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, total retail sales from Nov. 1 to Dec. 24 increased by 3.8% year over year, surpassing the previously forecast rise of 3.2% and topping the 3.1% increase during the same period last year.
This growth was primarily driven by a surge in online shopping, which saw a 6.7% increase compared to the previous year. In contrast, in-store sales experienced a more modest 2.9% growth. The convenience of online shopping, coupled with services like “buy online, pick up in-store” (BOPIS) and fast, free deliveries, contributed to this trend.
Despite a shortened holiday season with fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, consumers managed to maintain strong spending levels. The last five days of the holiday season accounted for 10% of all holiday spending, implying steady spending throughout the period without a significant last-minute push.
Specific categories saw notable growth, with apparel sales up 3.6%, jewelry increasing by 4%, and electronics rising 3.7% compared to the previous year. The popularity of gift cards remained high, with 53% of shoppers requesting them this holiday season.
Visa’s analysis corroborated these trends, reporting a 4.8% year-over-year increase in overall holiday retail spend across all forms of payment. Visa’s data showed that 77% of total payment volume was in-store, while 23% was online, highlighting the continued importance of the in-store experience for consumers.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) had set optimistic expectations for the season, predicting consumer spending would reach a record $902 per person on average across gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. This forecast represented an increase of about $25 per person compared to the previous year. Based on the Visa and Mastercard data, spending may have outperformed the NRF’s predictions, which called for the equivalent of 2.8% growth.
In the trucking industry, the holiday shopping surge had a noticeable impact on capacity and pricing. Tender rejection rates, a measure of available trucking capacity, rose significantly during the holiday period. The Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) increased by 286 basis points to 9.34% in the week leading up to Christmas, reaching its highest level in more than two years and eventually topping 10.1% on Dec. 22.
(The Outbound Tender Reject Index measures the percentage of truckload shipments rejected by carriers. The National Truckload Index is a fuel-inclusive average of dry van truckload spot rates in U.S. dollars per mile.)